Peak Oil - how prepared are you?

[megadaisy]

I saw an interview with some protesting lorry drivers yesterday on the tv and the journalist asked why they cant just pass the increased cost onto the customers and he said "no way weve tried and the customer always says that theyve spent theyre budget". Well thats not a very convincing argument is it.

Like you i've always tried to live as close to work as possible. In fact I started a new job 3 weeks ago and my commute to work is now a 30 minute stroll through park and woodland (Stockley Park) and its lovely

[baldmosher]

I saw an interview with some protesting lorry drivers yesterday on the tv and the journalist asked why they cant just pass the increased cost onto the customers and he said "no way weve tried and the customer always says that theyve spent theyre budget". Well thats not a very convincing argument is it.

wtf I feel like a cunt for trying to explain why that's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. And it's not far off.

I work in logistics and we increased our air freight fuel surcharges three times this year, it's gone up from 56p/KG to 78p/KG. It's the same situation the world over.

[PaulX]

The best thing you can do is buy a house nearer to work and national transport links. I've been doing this for years.

I thought you said this was the first time you'd bought a house? The costs of moving are significantly higher (legal fees, surveyors' fees, stamp duty and now the expensive and pointless HIPs) when you're buying and selling. Also, on this occasion you happened to buy in an area where stamp duty was exempt, so either you're going to have to pay stamp duty if you get a job somewhere else and you want to buy again, or restrict your job search to places where stamp duty is exempt.

If you need to up sticks fairly often as you change jobs, renting is much easier. To be honest, the only reason I've stayed with this job as long as I have is because it's much more of a hassle to move now. I rarely spent more than a year in any job when I rented.

Is that how you see things unfolding, by the way? A return to the 'good old days' when people lived in houses built by the mill (or pit) owner? I've seen the future and it's an LS Lowry painting? If 'peak oil' really does kick off, I'm probably better off staying put, as I have a big enough garden to be self-sufficient in food (apart from meat, except for the 'gifts' that my cat brings in) and buying direct from farmers is also easy here. It's the city dwellers who'll have bigger problems.

I think the truckers' main grievance is that Johnny Foreigner can fill up on much cheaper fuel, then come to Britain and undercut them. They're seeking a special concession on fuel duty (on a par with coach firms) purely for themselves, not for everybody else, so it isn't of much relevance to the wider issue of motorists being priced out of their cars. There does seem to be a growing national mood of resentment towards the country's level of taxation, though, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if some motorists try to start protests of their own - as well as green activists holding their own protests against Government retreats on this issue.

[baldmosher]

There does seem to be a growing national mood of resentment towards the country's level of taxation

It's not that much different from elsewhere in Europe. Fact, it costs a fuckload of money to keep a capitalist country with a free health service running well, and (IMO) it is.

[blather]Sperge, the problems with the government that you're citing seem to be centred around the government's perceived attitude, not their ability. And you can't guess what someone's attitude is, but you can judge them on their actions. Brown does seem a bit lost but he doesn't really have any crises to deal with. We might well have an economic one coming very soon, if the worst predictions are acccurate, but if it doesn't happen, will you thank Brown or just continue to foretell impending doom? If the Tories take over before it happens, they will certainly lay the blame squarely on Labour's shoulders.[/blather]

It doesn't help when they invade other countries for very little or no gain. (OK there's a very good reason not to vote Labour but it didn't seem to help much last time because the Tories were just as keen to invade Iraq. And Brown doesn't seem much like the guy to spunk billions on another war, so that's a moot point.)

Just look at the USA, they've (quite possibly, this is just a hypothesis) fucked themselves by invading Iraq, they've tried to promote "stability in the region" by eliminating an enemy, sounds great but they have merely destabilised the region even further, whilst laying first dibs on Iraqi oil. Securing supplies, perhaps, but for how long? And even if they DO get a real grip on Iraq over the next 5 years, I don't see that they can possibly draw enough oil out of the Iraqi wells and embezzle enough money to make it worthwhile for the US in the long term. Surely the ongoing costs of the war far outweigh the benefits? But perhaps the US is just too far gone down the road of global domination now, since oil is now worth more than their own people, and all they care about is the black stuff.

[PaulX]

It's not that much different from elsewhere in Europe. Fact, it costs a fuckload of money to keep a capitalist country with a free health service running well.

Hmm, the tax burden continues to rise in Britain while it's falling in the rest of the EU. I don't think the UK's tax burden has overtaken most of these countries' yet - but most of those countries do have much more to show for the money IMO. Not that it really matters, as I was just commenting on the way the national mood appears to be going. And - more to the point - the government does appear to be back-pedalling on the higher road tax bands and on the fuel duty escalator, which is a sign that they're getting worried about this backlash.

Surely the ongoing costs of the war far outweigh the benefits?

I think they do. It looks like a major fuck-up to me all round, especially considering that Cheney supposedly wanted the war to stop oil reaching $100 a barrel.

[baldmosher]

most of those countries do have much more to show for the money IMO

Like what?

But don't mention Sweden cos that wouldn't be a fair fight

the government does appear to be back-pedalling on the higher road tax bands and on the fuel duty escalator, which is a sign that they're getting worried about this backlash.

Good. (New) Labour have brazenly stolen/adapted the Tories' best ideas for the past 10 years (but until Cameron came along they tried to pretend otherwise) so they might as well start to invent their own ideas for a change now they've got a opposition leader who can read public opinion. The Conservatives until Cameron have definitely been the worst opposition this country has had in my lifetime. Even Kinnock wasn't that bad. Cameron has given them new direction and (so far) it seems they're following his lead. I still wouldn't vote for a blue cunt in an election for bluest cunt though.

Showing a bit of balls and doing what's obviously right for a change will restore the country's faith in Gordon Brown. Although, as you say, perhaps it's too late. All it takes is The Sun to switch allegiance (have they already, by any chance?) and you've an almost impossible task on your hands.

Surely the ongoing costs of the war far outweigh the benefits?

I think they do. It looks like a major fuck-up to me all round, especially considering that Cheney supposedly wanted the war to stop oil reaching $100 a barrel.

Cheney's a retard.

[PaulX]

most of those countries do have much more to show for the money IMO

Like what?

But don't mention Sweden cos that wouldn't be a fair fight

Well, let's take France. Better roads, much better rail system and better healthcare system. You see the specialist of your choice on the day of your choice. Yes, most people pay a charge upfront (although people below a certain income level get it free at the point of use like the NHS, I'm told) but the rebate gets paid back to them within days. They seem to be able to generate electricity much cheaper than we can too, with nearly 80% of it nuclear. I don't know if that's because the government is bankrolling all the decommissioning costs or if our lot are just crap as usual.

Cheney's a retard.

Unfortunately he's a very rich and powerful retard.

[Ab$olut]

apprently the usa are sitting on one of the biggest oil fields in the world in alaska yet they don't want to tap into it

well according to this man

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbakN7SLdbk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIPART47bIs

[baldmosher]

apprently the usa are sitting on one of the biggest oil fields in the world in alaska yet they don't want to tap into it

"Oil shales", they've known about them for decades, they're just VERY difficult to extract oil as you need to wash out the oil from the sand. It's just not economical right now while oil is still cheap, but it will be economical soon enough.

And then many many people will die and many environmental disasters will occur (allegedly)

[PaulX]

apprently the usa are sitting on one of the biggest oil fields in the world in alaska yet they don't want to tap into it

"Oil shales", they've known about them for decades, they're just VERY difficult to extract oil as you need to wash out the oil from the sand. It's just not economical right now while oil is still cheap, but it will be economical soon enough.

Thing is, I'm sure I remember it being said a while back that Canada's tar sands would become profitable once oil reached $80 a barrel. Calgary, Alberta, is certainly a classic boom town at the moment, the oil barons there must be very happy with current prices. Dunno about the economics for Alaska's oil shales though.

[baldmosher]

[offtopic]

Well, let's take France. Better roads, much better rail system and better healthcare system. You see the specialist of your choice on the day of your choice. Yes, most people pay a charge upfront (although people below a certain income level get it free at the point of use like the NHS, I'm told) but the rebate gets paid back to them within days. They seem to be able to generate electricity much cheaper than we can too, with nearly 80% of it nuclear. I don't know if that's because the government is bankrolling all the decommissioning costs or if our lot are just crap as usual.

Better roads? How so? All roads in EU have to conform to standards which is why there's been so much engineering work on UK roads for the last 5-10 years. If you mean less congestion that's a different matter entirely. We're overpopulated; the British can't drive properly (although we're learning); we have hippies complaining about every planned new road and using idiotic blinkered arguments against it, and construction is so fucking expensive now (£100m per mile of motorway was it I heard?) that it takes a LOT of reasoning and money to build a new road. The M6 Toll is a fantastic example of one way the government has sidestepped a lot of the funding issues. France has a lot more toll roads.

Better railways? How so? The TGV might be fucking fast, but now we have Pendolinos (you may remember the ATP that got shelved in the 70s because British passengers felt sick when it tilted); SNCF still have rail strikes on a regular basis (we don't!) and the local services are also far less frequent than in the UK and a lot slower (AND we're more densely populated which makes it more difficult to build new railways - thanks to Dr Beeching for that). France do have double decker trains though (infeasible in the UK). The Paris Metro is comparable to the London Underground, they're both pretty reliable although the LU is obviously showing its age in parts.

Better healthcare system? You're probably correct, but are you ignoring all the reforms that have been made in the UK over the past 10 years? Especially the recent ones over the past 2 years which have completely overhauled the power of a Trust to manage itself properly (Thatcher's great idea was finally made workable). You're certainly ignoring the fact that the NHS had been run using the same archaic system for almost 50 years and it's only now we're seeing such great improvements in patient choice. So much so that the dental service is now comparatively looking like it's in crisis, although I managed to get an NHS dentist without trouble and I don't know anyone who can't, and everything seems to have died down again (so I think it was probably resolved). Yes, we still have some badly run, dirty hospitals, but they are few and far between and I'm sure you could pull out the worst offenders in France and ruin your own argument using them if you really tried. I'm not sure what happened about all the trusts being in massive debt but that seems to me to be the result of poor management during the 90s and people starting to sue (don't disagree in principle) and being awarded ridiculously massive amounts of compensation (can fuck right off), which simply cripples the NHS further.

Power generation I'll give you, no brainer, but you can probably thank CND and Thatcher's reliance on North Sea Gas for that.


I think we're just a little bit behind everyone else, but we are clearly going in the right direction (albeit, I think, 20 years too late) and improving immeasurably on all counts I can think of (even education, which I will freely admit has been neglected despite Blair's mantra but now seems to be receiving attention). Which says to me that the government are fixing all the problems they inherited, slowly but surely. I'm not sure how you could read anything else from it unless you had another agenda.

FINAL EDIT:

Actually, I think I'm coming to terms with the idea that the Tories have probably come up with all the best ideas over the past 50 years, but just try to implement them as cheaply as possible, dooming them to failure from the outset. Like using gaffa tape to mend a leak rather than repairing the pipe with a welded copper shroud.

[baldmosher]

Thing is, I'm sure I remember it being said a while back that Canada's tar sands would become profitable once oil reached $80 a barrel.

Can't blame the US for holding their best (and most dangerous) resource until they absolutely have to use it.

[PaulX]

[offtopic]Like using gaffa tape to mend a leak rather than repairing the pipe with a welded copper shroud.

I like that analogy.

But this government has also tended to take some of the Tories' crap ideas and continued to pump money into them long after it had become apparent that they were crap, e.g, the Millennium Dome, PFI/PPP. Huge sums of money have been spent on the NHS for example, but much of it has been pissed up the wall on PFI - something we'll still be paying for 30 years hence, so effectively our future has been mortgaged.

Getting back to peak oil, Gordon was up in Scotland a couple of days ago urging an increase in North Sea oil production.

[baldmosher]

double post

[baldmosher]

But this government has also tended to take some of the Tories' crap ideas and continued to pump money into them long after it had become apparent that they were crap, e.g, the Millennium Dome

Agreed, but my counterargument would be that you can't fix everything all at once and planning these things takes time.

I rather like the Millennium Dome, it's a white elephant all right but it's a pretty impressive iconic structure and there was fuck all else to do in Greenwich until they built it. It's a great concert/events venue, the initial content was just crap. It's finally becoming a success so hopefully in 20 years we'll look back on it being not such a bad thing to celebrate 2000 with. And it's cheaper than Wembley.

[baldmosher]

Just in case you thought we were alone in the UK in complaining about fuel prices....

Korea: Truckers’ Strike – Update
(17 June 2008)

Talks between the government and striking truckers did not make progress yesterday, 16 June.

Transport Ministry officials warned yesterday that they are considering issuing a government order to force truckers back to work if the strike goes on so long that it seriously damages the National logistics system.

Despite the efforts to break the standoff, the strike is fast spreading across the nation. The Transport Ministry said yesterday that more than 13,000 truck drivers had joined the strike as of Sunday. Far larger than the walkout of 5,000 truckers in 2003. Many non-unionized truckers have also joined the protest this time because of the mounting fuel price burden.

Government officials are particularly worried that local harbours may be shut down if the problem carries on for too long, paralyzing international commercial transport.

Busan port, the Nation's largest gateway, handling three quarters of total cross-border shipping, has already neared its maximum cargo capacity.

According to Pusan Port Authority, the total cargo in/out movement from 15 June up to 22:00 on 16 June was 1,956 TEU which is 34% higher than the daily average of 31,924 TEU an 7% increased from the 14 June (27%-8575 TEU).

The major ports and terminal - Shinsundae, Gamman container terminals have already hit their maximum storage ratio of approximately 96%. 127 military trailers are now proceeding with emergency operations.

Anyway the rising cost of fuel seems to have done the trick in Manchester at last. Let's see how they justify bringing in a C-charge when people don't want to drive in any more

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/ ... f_the_road

EDIT: I like the way the link has been abbreviated.