Peak Oil - how prepared are you?

[PaulX]

I think most people have heard the term "Peak Oil" and have some idea what it means. If you don't, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil will bring you up to speed.

The current oil prices crisis doesn't necessarily mean peak oil is already here - the present situation is a classic speculation 'bubble', made worse by the collapsing dollar and the fact that oil is priced in dollars. There are also one or two flaws in peak oil theory. For a start, new oil discoveries have not been following a Gaussian distribution (i.e. a 'bell curve') so that aspect of it is bollocks.

But... seeing as a lot of people believe peak oil has either already happened, or is just around the corner, I'm curious to know if anybody's prepared for it?

I'm hedging my bets slightly by making a few small changes on the assumption that oil will keep spiralling up in price. I've bought a bicycle (mainly to help lose a bit of weight but also to become less car-dependent in an area with very poor public transport). I've been experimenting with biodiesel (although the price of veg oil has shot up too lately), I've started growing some of my own vegetables and would even start growing rapeseed for the oil if things really go tits-up. I will also start looking at powering some things off solar panels.

What are other people doing?

[PaulX]

I guess that's a big Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz then.

[shakyjane]

I currently use no oil

[PaulX]

I currently use no oil

But you do use public transport, use electricity, buy food and other stuff. The price of oil affects all these things (everything in the shops is brought there on lorries) and therefore it does affect you, even though you haven't felt the direct effects yet. All of these things will start going up in price massively and there are all the knock-on effects on the economy.

Some of the people who are really into the peak oil theory think it will lead to the complete break-up of society as we know it. Mind you, a good number of those are 'survivalist' types, the sort who built their own nuclear fallout shelters a couple of decades ago.

[shakyjane]

well then theres not much i can do to prepare for it

[tavdy79]

I know I use relatively little oil - pretty much all the oil I use goes on transporting food to my local shop.

The costs of avoiding oil is the real problem IMO - many people, particularly those on lower incomes, can't afford to avoid using oil because the alternatives are too expensive. Thanks to some recent bill increases, plus my employer not increasing pay this year, I'm currently living off my savings. At Sunrise I'll be bringing all my food with me since buying food on site isn't an option. Right now I need to find ways to save money, not spend more, and locally produced food is more expensive.

Local food is also often inaccessible unless you have a car - there is a farmer's market in Bedford, but it's on for just one Thursday a month. Even if I was able to go (I'm at work when it's on) the fruit & veg wouldn't last more than a week to ten days. That leaves three weeks when I'd have no choice but to use my local shop.

[Efflux]

Given that my car is fucked, and I can't afford the insurance which is due in a few months. I'm not gonna be driving anymore, and need to get my bike fixed. Public transport is gonna be a problem for me, but I'm moving to Notts permenantly soon and should be ok for transport by walking/cycling places. Just gonna be food prices really.

[PaulX]

Thanks to some recent bill increases, plus my employer not increasing pay this year, I'm currently living off my savings.

That's really shit.

[buzzingtalk]

dark times ahread - i use a bike and am not relyin on cars as transport but i do often rely on public buses and trains, aswell as oil used to transport food and goods. tesco/sainsburys is the only option to eat with the recent price hikes

[Slypsy]

if it hasn't yet peaked, and i wouldn't be surprised if it had as many well respected geologists predicted it peaking this decade, which is almost finished, then it will do soon, and persoanlly i beleive that when this happens it will be the start of a really steep drop on the slippery slope that we are already on (and i wouldn't count myself as a survivalist Sperge).

It is not just cars and transport, but foodwise, fertliser, its application and current soil management techniques all realy heavily on oil. if people think food prices (and petrol) are expensive now, you aint seen nothing yet!

[buzzingtalk]

sad but true in my eyes also slypsy. im quite lucky that i dont find food prices expensive - but theres always ways to get cheap fruit and veg and other food i eat really doesnt cost a lot if you buy in bulk. however if you want fresh food and meat, your fucked.

everyone best make sure they got a working freezer ready for times when its too expensive to go shopping once a week for fresh goods!

[baldmosher]

It is not just cars and transport, but foodwise, fertiliser, its application and current soil management techniques all rely heavily on oil. if people think food prices (and petrol) are expensive now, you aint seen nothing yet!

Indeed. Not to mention all the plastic, construction and pharmaceutical prices rocketing (although they are already sky high IMHO except mainstream, patent-expired drugs such as paracetamol and Kumagra for example).

We've had 20 years of plentiful bounty and mass-marketing that have completely changed British attitudes to food, and those attitudes will certainly change back a lot quicker than that as prices start to rocket. (Which they will have to.)

Shopping for "local" produce isn't really a true option if you live in a city, but at least you have more choice of shops that aren't supermarket chains so will be more likely to stock localish produce as a preference. And the cost really isn't that inhibitive if you shop in-season, plan carefully and consider that your local produce will last longer before it spoils. Caterers have been following this for years - if it's in season and local, it's always cheaper. Most veg suppliers will send you a weekly update with reports on stock levels etc. to explain fluctuations in price - you'll normally be charged at the market rate and if you're a catering manager or chef it's up to you to plan accordingly.

Tavdy, I can't believe you have no local shops that charge reasonable prices? Where do you live?

[PaulX]

if it hasn't yet peaked, and i wouldn't be surprised if it had as many well respected geologists predicted it peaking this decade, which is almost finished, then it will do soon, and persoanlly i beleive that when this happens it will be the start of a really steep drop on the slippery slope that we are already on (and i wouldn't count myself as a survivalist Sperge).

Oh, I'm not arguing with you Sly, all I was saying in that post is that the current price spike doesn't necessarily mean peak oil has happened. It may have, it may not have - the causes of the present situation are the speculation and currency exchange issues.

And yes, absolutely, the price of oil impacts on everybody - and if the supply truly has peaked, the shit really will hit the fan.

Incidentally, what do you make of the theory of abiotic oil? I know it's not taken very seriously by oil geologists (except Russian ones, for some reason) but presumably it can theoretically occur since Titan is believed to have huge lakes of hydrocarbons, which obviously aren't of biological origin. I'm not saying I believe there is any on earth - there are no proven reserves of abiotic oilfields to date, so it would be a pretty desperate straw to cling to - but I was wondering what your take is on it?

[buzzingtalk]

tbh theres not one shop round here that has all round reasonable prices - hence why i have to go all up and down the high street to get a good weeks worth of food. this doesnt bother me but when i have a full time job it probably will, local produce is the war forwards but will the big supermarker chains obliterate independant shops in time so that we will have to pay inflated prices for food from a chain store? independeant shops are dissapearing in london at an alarming rate, not sure about out of london but they are dying out in favour of big name chains that wont help me when the prices soar.

and yes in season fruit and veg is the way, although sometimes i do undluge in out of season shit just cos its tasty but when it costs too much ill say goodbye to this, or stick it in the freezer when its in date

[baldmosher]

Titan is believed to have huge lakes of hydrocarbons, which obviously aren't of biological origin.

Why not? 5 billion years is a long time for shit to happen in this solar system, and that's assuming the universe is only 5bn years old anyway. And you're also assuming that microbial (or otherwise) life consists only of carbon-based organisms....

...I'm still holding out hope for finding a glacier under the surface of Mars and a massive tribidium reactor.

[Slypsy]

I don't really no much about abiotic oil i am afraid Sperge. It seems a bit far fetched to me as not only are their signatures of life in the carbon isotpe ratios in oil, when examined under a microscope little bits of shell and other substances can be seen mixed in with oil. It is certainly not my area of expertese though, so i can't really say anything for sure.


And Baldmosher, you are mixing your cosmological terms and talking rubbish, or at least appear to be confused.

The universe is widely believed to be much older than 5 billion years (most people agree on between about 11 and 20 billion years with the mass consenus being around the 13.5 - 14 billion years). the solar system, on the other hand, is generally beleived to be around 4 1/2 billion years old. Whilst that is obviously long enough for life to have developed on Earth, that says NOTHING about its delevopment anywhere else. It may be that with the number of planets there are in the universe (however many there are) life will arise on average once every 1000 billion years and it is just a fluke occurance that it arose on earth so early on. Of couse, it could arise a lot more often than that, but my point is that it is not possible to say "this happened in this amount of time here, so it should happen in the same amount of time there". We just don't know.

And your point about life not necessarily being carbon based. Now for a start there is ZERO evidence that it is possible for non-carbon based life to exist. It is total speculation. And even if it did exits it is hardly going to break down over time and underpressure to form hydroCARBONs now is it?!

[tavdy79]

Thanks to some recent bill increases, plus my employer not increasing pay this year, I'm currently living off my savings.

That's really shit.

You're telling me? I have 9 months to find another job or a boyfriend who'll move in and pay half the rent!

[baldmosher]

And Baldmosher, you are mixing your cosmological terms and talking rubbish, or at least appear to be confused.

All, except for the latter.

And even if it did exits it is hardly going to break down over time and underpressure to form hydroCARBONs now is it?!

Damn! I stand corrected all of them then.

When we're speculating about an infinite number of planets it's fair to assume that life exists elsewhere in the universe. It's approaching an absolute mathematical certainty. (I know more about stats than I do about biology, as you can probably guess.) The chances of it happening twice in one solar system could well be approaching zero, as you say, but didn't they find evidence of bacterial fossils on Mars or something similar? Or was that reactionary bollocks?

You're telling me? I have 9 months to find another job or a boyfriend who'll move in and pay half the rent!

Have you entertained the idea of finding someone to move in who ISN'T your boyfriend? I just got a lodger which means I will have £250 a month in my pocket that I wouldn't otherwise have. It is my own house though which possibly makes that a bit easier to do.

http://www.easyroommate.com (no it isn't THAT kind of easy)

[tavdy79]

You're telling me? I have 9 months to find another job or a boyfriend who'll move in and pay half the rent!

Have you entertained the idea of finding someone to move in who ISN'T your boyfriend? I just got a lodger which means I will have £250 a month in my pocket that I wouldn't otherwise have. It is my own house though which possibly makes that a bit easier to do.

http://www.easyroommate.com (no it isn't THAT kind of easy)

It's a one-bedroom flat, and isn't really suitable for a lodger - they'd have no privacy.

[baldmosher]

It's a one-bedroom flat

I take it you're stuck there on a year contract? If so, they might let you cut it short to save them the hassle of suing you.

[tavdy79]

It's a one-bedroom flat

I take it you're stuck there on a year contract? If so, they might let you cut it short to save them the hassle of suing you.

It's a housing association flat, a *really* nice one that I'd like to buy eventually.

In fact my work/money situation is a lot more complicated than I said. My employer changed working practices last year in such a way that they're now in breach of the Disability Discrimination Act due to my Asperger's Syndrome. I'm working with my union rep to try and sort it out, but if we can't I'll have to quit; if that happens I'll also sue them for constructive dismissal & disability discrimination. They already know this is what will happen, so I'm hoping they'll be sensible and do what they ought to do. If it gets to the stage where I do need to quit I'll be needing a new job within two to three months of now, rather than by early next year.

My life is Hell in a handbasket right now...

[PaulX]

Moving back to sort-of on topic, we certainly have "interesting times" ahead. Poor old Gordon Brown is getting pressure from absolutely every direction on this, I actually feel quite sorry for him at the moment despite what I may have said elsewhere.

I think it could all get quite ugly in the coming months, with one chunk of the population supporting the hauliers etc campaigning to get the fuel taxes cut, and another chunk demonstrating for him to step up the green taxes. I think things are going to get polarised in a way that we haven't seen for a long time.

[buzzingtalk]

It's a one-bedroom flat

I take it you're stuck there on a year contract? If so, they might let you cut it short to save them the hassle of suing you.

It's a housing association flat, a *really* nice one that I'd like to buy eventually.

In fact my work/money situation is a lot more complicated than I said. My employer changed working practices last year in such a way that they're now in breach of the Disability Discrimination Act due to my Asperger's Syndrome. I'm working with my union rep to try and sort it out, but if we can't I'll have to quit; if that happens I'll also sue them for constructive dismissal & disability discrimination. They already know this is what will happen, so I'm hoping they'll be sensible and do what they ought to do. If it gets to the stage where I do need to quit I'll be needing a new job within two to three months of now, rather than by early next year.

My life is Hell in a handbasket right now...

savage!

[megadaisy]

I think it could all get quite ugly in the coming months, with one chunk of the population supporting the hauliers etc campaigning to get the fuel taxes cut, and another chunk demonstrating for him to step up the green taxes.

The government have zero regard for the environment unless they can raise money by taxing it so the lorry drivers will win.

[baldmosher]

I think it could all get quite ugly in the coming months, with one chunk of the population supporting the hauliers etc campaigning to get the fuel taxes cut, and another chunk demonstrating for him to step up the green taxes.

The government have zero regard for the environment unless they can raise money by taxing it so the lorry drivers will win.

I've NEVER understood the complaints of hauliers. They are basically complaining about having to pass on the additional fuel costs to THEIR customers.

They are ONLY competing against other hauliers. Every haulier running vehicles in the UK pays the same price for fuel in the UK. (The only possible exception would be hauliers who could fill up in Ireland or Europe to save fuel costs but I don't know fuel tank capacities or mpg figures for HGVs so I wouldn't like to validate that point...)

The people who SHOULD be complaining are the people buying the goods (i.e. the everyday consumer). Everyone else throughout the chain, hauliers included, just gets a cut, the same as they always have. It affects inflation but that's been so low for so long that people have been distracted by dirt cheap food from the third world by airfreight and aftermarket electronics from the far east that everyone's forgotten that prices are actually supposed to go UP over time.

We've been moaning for years about having to pay for congestion charges, road tolls, road tax, etc. and now the fairest method of reducing congestion comes along and someone's up in arms about it? Ridiculous. If it really bothers you that much that fuel costs are rising, buy a more economical car and minimise the effect. Or, if you can, get a scooter, or even a bicycle, or maybe even try public transport (that's not any cheaper, but if you can then do without your car completely you'll save a packet on tax and insurance). The best thing you can do is buy a house nearer to work and national transport links. I've been doing this for years. (But I still have a car and use it to drive the 4 miles to work cos there's no direct buses.)